Nikola Jovic: All Roads Lead to Upside

Written by David

Much of the discussion around prospects leading up to the draft focuses on player evaluation: Who’s the best rim protector? How’s his shooting versatility? Can he slide with smaller guards?

While it’s obviously necessary to fully understand a player at the time of the draft, identifying how these traits relate to possible developmental paths is most important in player projection. A player’s ability to shoot the ball is a massive factor in considering how a prospect will fare in the association, as it can guarantee early minutes in NBA careers and open up opportunities for other areas of offensive development. Thankfully for Nikola Jovic, shooting, and the willingness to do so, comes easy to him. Other aspects of the Serbian 19 year-old’s game are developed enough to provide clear ideas of what his upside could be, but he’ll have to seriously improve in those facets of his game to come close to reaching his tantalizing ceiling.

Offense

Jovic’s primary selling point and the foundation of his offensive game is his shooting. Over his 21-22 with Mega in the Adriatic League, he converted 36% of his threes with a .5 3PAr. At 6’11” (per the NBA Combine) with a quick release, he has no trouble shooting over defenders.

While his form produces positive results, there are consistency issues from top to bottom. His left elbow occasionally flares out and his follow through is nonexistent at times, leading to bad misses. In catch-and-shoot situations his shot prep is inconsistent, mixing left-right combos with hop steps and sometimes having to reorganize his feet after the catch. He sometimes lands hard, other times with feet split wide apart or one in front of the other, and tends to lean back as he comes down. Still, there are some things to like: the energy transfer from his legs to arms is fluid and the ball placement is optimal for his shoot-over-the-top playstyle.

Despite his affinity for deep threes, his 72% clip on free throws across all 29 games this year and passing placement issues are not overly encouraging for his touch. Nevertheless, cleaning up the previously mentioned minor mechanical issues should make him a comfortably good NBA shooter.

Jovic leverages his shooting with a deep bag of isolation moves culminating in a pull-up or turn-around jumper. Unlike his catch-and-shoot footwork, his technique and upper/lower body synergy when creating for himself are excellent. His arsenal extends into the mid-post and with his back to the basket, though he’s best operating in space on the perimeter. While he doesn’t sell his moves much (his upper/lower body misalignments are pretty subtle), he’s deliberate enough to create sufficient space to be unaffected by contests.

Stringing together a series of move with perfect footwork

Simple step-back generates plenty of space for a clean release

For someone with his combination of size and fluidity, Jovic’s lack of rim pressure is definitely a concern. Although he creates some easy looks with stutter rips going both directions, he hasn’t displayed the ability to break down defenders off the dribble and get all the way to the cup. Most of his drives consist of dribbles with only one hand, and he has no counters going at full speed. Occasional handle slips are partially offset by his long strides, though he’ll have to fully solve the handle issues to become a consistent rim threat. To his credit, Mega loved to stuff the paint with multiple players and ABA schemes often showed early help and sagged off shooters to cut off driving angles, but Jovic’s clear preference for shooting over defenders might have to be mitigated to improve his efficiency and get him to play more within an offense.

Gaining wiggle and shake is a notoriously difficult skill to develop, but Jovic has shown enough of these already that, along with his solid burst and stride lengths, he has legitimate potential to create more frequent rim attempts for himself. He’ll also need to improve getting downhill and making good decisions – plenty of Jovic’s turnovers came from making a poor or late decision while driving at full speed.

When he does get all the way to the rim, he relies primarily on his length to get his shots off. Gaining more upper body strength should help him deal with contact at the rim, but his wiring is very clearly that of a player who will try to finish around contact rather than through it. Jovic isn’t an explosive leaper, but at 6’11 and comfortable jumping off either foot it’s not much of an issue.

Second in the argument for Jovic having creation upside is his passing. At his size he doesn’t have to rely on creating passing angles and has great flashes as a decision-maker in transition and the pick-and-roll, but he still misses basic reads and at times struggles to process the court. Operating in the pick-and-roll against drop coverage, Jovic’s height allows him to easily throw a lob if the dropping big overcommits, but he’ll have to develop a floater or an in-between game if NBA defenders call his bluff on scoring. He’s also adept at keeping his defender on his hip, but takes wide angles around the screen and doesn’t get tight enough to make it difficult for his defender to get back into the play. Overall his passing placement is good, but frequently at the expense of having to pick up his dribble rather than make the same pass live with one hand. On some occasions, however, his passes are several feet off, even from close range.

Perfect execution keeping defender on hip and putting dropping big in tough situation

Poor placement on pass prevents an easy dunk

Against blitzes, hedges, and even sometimes against drop he drags the play out laterally, relying on his height to see over the defense and find the open man, but often takes too long to recognize the right pass before the defense recovers. His eagerness to give up on plays by picking up his dribble or forcing a read that isn’t there is indicative of a player who should not be receiving many creation reps.

Forces a pass to the roller that isn’t there

Takes too long recognizing the hedge-turned-double, killing the possession

Again, ABA defenses are good at collapsing the court and covering up passing lanes, but Jovic still missed too many reads for me to be completely confident in him running the pick-and-roll. Rather than constantly reassessing the court while maintaining his dribble, Jovic only surveys the court and progresses through his reads once he picks up his dribble, resulting in countless wasted advantages. Dribbling with his head down or staring down his roll man makes it near impossible to make the right pass if it’s not apparent in his peripheral vision, so improving the handle should help here. Still, it’ll take many reps to perfect his timing, patience, and understanding of how to deal with a variety of coverages.

Stares down roller and misses wing shooter

Jovic’s strengths and weaknesses as a passer are most apparent in transition where there’s a need to continuously process fast off-ball movement and make a timely decision. His threat to score and open-court speed are to his advantage, but he isn’t always able to force defenders to commit. Like in the half-court, he tends to only see what’s in front of him and rarely maintains multiple good options while waiting for one to become the clear choice. There are still plenty of positive decisions, but the overall consistency is lacking.

Encouraging assertiveness and same foot finish

Doesn’t recognize 2v1 developing on left and misses pass for layup

Defense

A high center of gravity and slow hips make Jovic a poor on-ball defender and contribute to his reputation as a strong negative on this end, but his team defense puts him solidly in the range of average defenders for me. When guarding smaller, shiftier players Jovic struggled to prevent space creation as he was unable to recover from simple crosses or snatchbacks. At times he was more effective backing off and using his length to contest shots, which should definitely be his strategy going forward. On the perimeter, it’d be more optimal to treat him as a big who won’t be immediately exposed rather than a switchable forward. He’s quick enough laterally to prevent straight line drives and can use his length to contest jumpers and finishes. Adding more strength would help, too.

Not as much of a liability when he allows some space between him and ball handler

There’s also some technical issues, especially on closeouts and screen navigation. He puts too much weight forward, takes large steps, and lunges at fakes. Again, trusting his length more should help him overcommit less often. Any screen on or off the ball completely takes him out of the play so he’ll have to learn to “get skinny” or fight through harder to be better here. His poor balance and flexibility will probably prevent him from ever becoming a good screen navigator, though.

Too slow around screen leading to open look

As a defender off the ball, Jovic displayed some high-level activity, but needs to clean some things up to be a clear positive there. He tags as the low man against pick-and-roll, rotates fairly well, and rarely falls asleep. While he shows good awareness, he doesn’t offer much as a secondary rim protector and is slow to cover ground. He often faces the ball and is uninterested defending at the nail. He’ll never be much of a defensive playmaker, but he has a good chance to be a positive team defender.

Faces ball allowing his man to cut right in front of him

Projection and Development

Jovic should have no trouble getting playing time early in his career due to his dribble/pass/shoot skill set. If his team sees him more as an isolation scoring option, giving him more reps in space and trying to get him against switches – both smaller defenders to shoot over and larger defenders to drive past – would be beneficial. If a team believes more in his decision-making long-term, as I think they should, pick-and-roll reps without second actions should make it easier for him as he develops his playmaking, as well as encourage him to be more assertive and opportunistic as a scorer. While he’s not overly threatening going downhill, getting him the ball with an advantage already created could also help him develop an in-between game. His challenges turning the corner could make some common stuff hard to run, so it could be easier to just involve him more naturally in an offense attacking closeouts and identifying space along the perimeter as a shooter.

Covers ground quickly after attacking closeout and makes dump off pass

Poor shin angles make it hard for him to turn corners sharply

The handling and passing issues are probably too significant for him to have primary creator upside, but it’s not completely out of the question if the development across these areas occurs at a high level. If the good team defense becomes a larger part of his game, he could become an ideal 3&D+ wing on a team that can scale his offensive load up or down. There’s ways to optimize him if one of dribble/pass/shoot develops more than the rest, but the handle consistency and shake are the most important (and most challenging) for him to reach his offensive ceiling.

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