Against The Grain: Players We Rank Lower
Written by Garrett Johnson
People are drawn to certainty. In the draft community, people too often jump to extreme conclusions when grading prospects in search of that certainty – X player will be a bust, Y player will be an All-Star, Z player’s college production is guaranteed to translate to the NBA, and so on. In reality, outcomes for legitimate draft prospects are never so absolute. With so many variables that contribute to players’ success professionally being impossible to predict or even quantify, career trajectory for draft prospects should not be pigeonholed into two oppositional outcomes.
This article focuses on players that are ranked lower by The Looney Bin than their projected draft range, and why that gap in rankings might exist. This article is NOT a list of players that our writers think will be busts - any player discussed below is someone that holds a ranking on The Looney Bin’s Consensus Board, which in itself is an endorsement of a player’s talents. Every player on this list has an opportunity to be an NBA player for years to come.
With that disclaimer behind us, here are eight prospects that rank lower on The Looney Bin’s Consensus Rankings for the 2021 class than their rumored draft range. TLB rankings listed below correspond to our latest board that dropped today.
Davion Mitchell
Draft projection: Early Lottery TLB Consensus: #29
The good: Davion Mitchell is an excellent on-ball defender and had a year to remember in Baylor’s championship season. Improved shooting and decision-making from Mitchell in his senior year allowed him to fully utilize his incredible athleticism to slash to the basket and find his teammates for threes. His ability to accelerate and decelerate at an elite level is integral to his success at getting to the rim.
Reason behind ranking: Mitchell had an unforeseeable, meteoric rise up draft boards after the NCAA Tournament and is frequently mocked in the 5-7 range. While Mitchell is an exciting player and one that most Looney Bin members would want on their team, the logic behind investing a high lottery pick on Mitchell eludes us. Prior to his senior year, Mitchell was largely viewed as a fringe prospect. Plagued by poor decision-making offensively and shooting splits of just 41/32/66, the tales of his junior and senior seasons could not have been more different. While his improvement in the last year has been great to see, we are tentative about fully buying into his 44.7% 3-point shooting as a senior when his free throw percentage has largely remained the same.
Davion was a strong on-ball defender in college, but the skill threshold to be an elite defender in the NBA at his size (6’1”, 6’4” wingspan) is very high. Drafting Davion Mitchell’s skill set in the early lottery indicates that you believe he is an All-Defense caliber player. But if Davion Mitchell were to make an All-Defensive team, he’d be tied with Chris Paul for the shortest combined height and wingspan of any All-Defensive player since 1999. It would be a tall task for Davion to be among the group of players below – not out of the question, but when ranking prospects, the likelihood of such an outcome should be considered.
Alperen Şengün
Draft Projection: Late Lottery TLB Consensus: #24
The good: Şengün has an arsenal of post moves that he cycles through with creativity and poise for a center of his age. His feel offensively is rivaled by few big men in the class, and he’s a solid rebounder with good positioning. He shows potential as a positive playmaker from the post.
Reason behind ranking: Şengün’s ranking from The Looney Bin is primarily a function of his projected role at the next level, and what value that would add to a championship team. Without high-level rim protection skills or NBA range, Şengün will have to be a truly elite offensive post player to carve a significant role in playoff rotations, and while he may develop a viable outside shot and make strides with his defensive feel over time, that is asking a lot of his development.
Şengün’s reported height is 6’9”, and his lateral athleticism likely limits him to playing center. In the last 20+ seasons, the only centers 6’9” or shorter to post over 20 minutes per game for a championship team are Tristan Thompson (15-16) and Ben Wallace (03-04). If Şengün develops an outside shot, the best player for him to emulate might be Kevin Love – but his playstyle would have to undergo a radical transformation for his game to reach that level.
James Bouknight
Draft Projection: Late Lottery TLB Consensus: #26
The good: Bouknight is an acrobat in a scoring guard’s body, using his 6’8” wingspan and impressive body control to find shots for himself at the rim that others can’t. Bouknight takes full advantage when the defense gives him an angle to drive into the paint.
Reason behind ranking: Opinions vary about the draft value of James Bouknight within The Looney Bin, but we collectively agree that his projected draft spot is just too high. Quite a few prospects in this year’s class have serious question marks around their outside shooting, and Bouknight is no exception. Bouknight shot poorly from deep both before his elbow injury and afterwards, and his tendency to stray from proper shooting form while under duress is a significant concern. If issues with his jumpshot persist and he’s unable to keep defenses honest, the threat of his drive will be significantly diminished.
For much of the latter half of the year, Bouknight was the victim of double teams and designed traps from opposing defenses, and while he shouldn’t be knocked for struggling with that type of defensive attention, it’s worth noting that his struggles with floor vision made it difficult for him to make the right passes to his more open teammates. His floor vision issues persist on the defensive end; the defensive motor has improved from year one to two, but Bouknight still struggles with overcommitting and being out of position offball.
Bouknight is a known commodity when it comes to finishing in the paint, but questions about what else he can do have influenced our consensus ranking. Bouknight has the potential to be a star in this league, but he’ll need to show significant improvement in several problem areas of his game.
Isaiah Jackson
Draft Projection: Late Lottery / Middle First Round TLB Consensus: #44
The good: Jackson combines an unconfirmed 6’10” frame and 7’2” wingspan with uncanny footspeed and verticality. His athleticism manifests itself with highlight blocks, a threat to rock the rim, and the ability to run in transition. Kentucky’s season went off the rails early, but Jackson showed that he was continuing to work on his game, becoming a capable passer and playing with more control over time.
Reason behind ranking: Isaiah Jackson’s game is going to be a project, and there is plenty to work on. Isaiah Jackson is far from becoming a consistent scorer from anywhere on the floor. He’s essentially a non-shooter from outside the paint, and he struggles to find consistent touch down low. His wiry frame makes it difficult for Jackson to work in the post and hold his ground defensively. Jackson hunts for blocks more than any other prospect in this class, and his unusually high block rate reflects that; block-hunting and overhelping defensively frequently left the paint open for easy opponent finishes.
It should be considered a positive that Isaiah Jackson once considered returning to school - it was an acknowledgement by him and his family that he has work to do to be an NBA player. But now that he has signed with an agent, forgoing his college eligibility, teams should be placing appropriate value on Jackson knowing that his development into a positive player will take some time, and that the end result may not provide significant value in return. Jackson will need to hit on some of the best possible outcomes in his defensive development in order to compensate for low contributions offensively, and outside of being an occasional lob threat, there isn’t much to his game on that end right now. There are talks of Isaiah Jackson going potentially as high as the late lottery - The Looney Bin places his value in the middle of the second round.
Cam Thomas
Draft Projection: Mid-to-Late First TLB Consensus: #37
The good: Cam Thomas is one of the best at creating his own shot in this class and exudes confidence on the court. He continued to score in bunches despite drawing significant defensive gravity from opponents throughout the season. While he shot just 32% from 3 on the year, his 88% free throw percentage suggests that there’s optimism for improved efficiency. Thomas is an athlete, and he attacks the basket fearlessly with great feel for getting to the rim and drawing fouls.
Reason behind ranking: When Cam Thomas got the ball at LSU, he shot it. He was a volume scorer to an extreme – a historical extreme compared to his future NBA contemporaries. If Cam Thomas becomes a successful plug-and-play bench scorer, he will do so while achieving the holy trifecta of ballhog statistics at the college level – highest college usage percentage, lowest college assist percentage, and the second lowest 3pt% among players listed below.
While the bench flamethrower role is certainly valuable in the NBA, you have to be real damn good at it to be a positive contributor to your team. If Cam Thomas continues to be the statistical anomaly that he was at LSU, he’ll have to make up for it with legendary scoring prowess in his pro career. Further complicating Thomas’ path to being a positive player is his defense. In particular, Thomas has to significantly improve his understanding of help defense at the next level, and fast - he’ll be targeted by opposing teams right away. Among the list above, just about every player in Thomas’ projected role either A) were willing passers, B) became acceptable defenders, or C) hit shots at a high enough clip to mitigate their shortcomings. It will be interesting to see what route Thomas tries to pursue.
Tre Mann
Draft Projection: Mid-to-Late First TLB Consensus: #42
The good: Tre Mann showed improvement in most aspects of his game from his underwhelming freshman season a year ago. Sporting a smooth handle and an effective step-back jumper, Mann was given the keys to the Florida offense as a sophomore, and he enjoyed significant statistical improvements across all categories.
Reason behind ranking: Mann’s handle is pretty to look at, but his point guard play is still a work in progress, and that raises questions about his role at the next level. Most members of The Looney Bin agree that Mann is probably best-served moving to the two-guard spot and ceding playmaking duties to a point guard with better floor vision. If Mann plays alongside a traditional point guard, he’ll frequently be bullied by larger guards defensively and may get played off the floor in playoff situations due to his frame, short wingspan, and lack of lateral speed. For example, Bryn Forbes’ role in Milwaukee’s playoff run this year has dwindled despite the absence of DiVincenzo. Mann is a bit larger than Forbes, though, and he should become a more physical defender with time in NBA strength & conditioning. At minimum, Mann will need to learn to fight through screens harder and put himself in better position to defend against the drive consistently. In short, Mann’s team role will likely change significantly from college to the pros, and the challenges that come with that are baked into our consensus ranking.
Ayo Dosunmu
Draft Projection: Late First / Early Second TLB consensus: #54
The good: Ayo Dosunmu is an expert at using the pick-and-roll to find his shot and attack off the bounce. He showed significant improvement as a player from his sophomore year to his junior year, including a near-10% jump in his three-point percentage. His handle is a positive for a big guard and doesn’t slow him down from getting to the rim.
Reason behind ranking: Ayo is a terrific college player who will be challenged to find an effective fit at the next level. As his game currently stands, Dosunmu needs the ball to be in his hands offensively to be at his most effective, but his talent level does not justify the high usage he would require in an NBA rotation. When he does have the ball in his hands, Dosunmu often plays too downhill, an issue that has plagued him at Illinois and will exacerbate with smarter defenders at the NBA level. I am more optimistic about Dosunmu’s development than many in The Looney Bin, but that belief primarily comes from the development he has already shown in his college career. As a rookie, Dosunmu will need to accept the challenge of more frequent off-ball play, continue to improve as a shooter, and commit to becoming a legitimate two-way player. Until then, he is stuck in an untenable place for a team constructing a winning roster.
Greg Brown
Draft Projection: Late First / Early Second TLB Consensus: #65
The good: Greg Brown is an otherworldly athlete, posting some of the top athletic numbers across the major categories at the combine while standing at 6’8.5” with a seven-foot wingspan. When his motor is running high, Brown can rock the rim with highlight dunks and has the tools to be a strong defensive rebounder.
Reason behind ranking: Like Isaiah Jackson, Greg Brown is an incredible athlete with a lot to work on in the pros before he’ll be a positive player. However, while Isaiah Jackson has shown flashes of development during Kentucky’s disastrous season, Greg Brown's play stagnated throughout the year, and his role dwindled as his frustrations grew. For Brown to be a productive NBA player, the central component of his development will need to be improved processing speed and decision-making on both ends of the floor. Too often at Texas, Brown was caught driving directly into traffic and committing to bad shot attempts, and he lacked the necessary vision to be anything but a ball-stopper (reflected in his stunningly low assist numbers). His defense is buoyed by his athleticism, but not enough to hide his struggles processing standard college offenses and where he should be in off-ball situations.
At this stage in his development, Greg Brown needs to simplify his game into doing what he does best while the rest of the game comes along, and he should be considered a multiyear project. Unlike raw international athletes who are often stashed for multiple years before being rostered, a late first or early second round pick for a domestic prospect is a financial commitment and a roster spot for a player who in this case will take some time to be ready to play. The Looney Bin’s consensus late second round grade for Greg Brown is a reflection of the proper level of investment teams should make on a prospect like him.
Thank you for reading.
Our latest Consensus Board has been released to reflect our post-combine rankings of the top seventy prospects. Check it out here. Our article on players we rank higher than consensus will drop with our next board following the collegiate deadline to withdraw from the draft. Let us know what you think about our rankings here at @DraftTLB.
Written by Garrett.