Archetype Pools Within The 2021 Draft Class (Part 1: Off Guards)
Written by Carter Young
Archetypes, while being a bit imprecise at times, can be useful as a tool to group prospects together and compare their traits more easily. If you’ve been tuned into the NBA for the past 5 years or so, you’ve undoubtedly heard the term ‘position-less basketball’ and the discourse surrounding it. Essentially, with the current NBA rule set, and the rise of the big initiator, certain archetypes (defense-only wings and plodding bigs) are being phased out of the game. While there are a few exceptions to this trend, many of those players are guys who get limited minutes due to how difficult it is to fit them into the current league meta. Many teams are moving towards a homogenized blend of guard/wing-sized players who can pass, dribble, and shoot. Teams without star bigs are even incorporating a platoon system, in which their 5 is decided by matchups (and isn’t always necessarily a true 5). This trend has rendered the traditional 1-5 position naming system rigid and outdated. Due to the blurring of the lines between positional duties and the overall diversity of skill sets in the league, archetypes have become a much more practical way of characterizing players.
Archetypal categories can really be as broad or as specific as you want them to be based on your basketball philosophy. It is worth noting that not only do many high-end players fill multiple roles, but also that some of them exist in an archetype of their own. Players like Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo do not really have players, current or historical, that are truly comparable to them. Unorthodox players are also present when moving down rosters - someone like Bruce Brown is probably best described as a “weirdo”, more or less. Furthermore, players develop throughout their careers! They improve on their baseline skills while often adding different skills and changing their playstyle to adapt to different situations. This method of pooling players together based on their general set of traits is not always perfect, but it helps lower the difficulty of trying to figure out which players fit into a modern NBA role, which players don’t, and which players are better or worse than their peers in certain contexts.
This series of pieces will separate the 2021 draft class into a number of archetypes based on my perception of their physical and stylistic traits and how those will fit into lineups at the next level. Notably, there are some archetypes that will be mostly filled by higher-level prospects due to their rarity or importance, and some archetypes that may be mostly filled by lower-ranked guys because of the difficulty in fitting them into modern lineups. Also, lower-level prospects generally have less-defined skill sets as they typically lack obvious NBA traits, or else they would have likely been ranked higher. Lastly, many prospects are raw developmentally and therefore have not exactly “specialized” yet, meaning they are more difficult to place in a category.
OFF-BALL SCORING GUARDS
Jalen Green (6’6)
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Jaden Springer (6’4)
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Josh Christopher (6’4)
James Bouknight (6’5)
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Bones Hyland (6’3)
Max Abmas (6’0)
Austin Reaves (6’6)
Cam Thomas (6’4)
Tre Mann (6’4)
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JaQuori McLaughlin (6’4)
Ayo Dosunmu (6’5)
David Duke (6’5)
Obadiah Noel (6’4)
Joshua Primo (6’5)
This is a collection of guys with a pretty wide range of ancillary skills (mainly passing and defense), but all of them profile as non-initiating guards whose biggest contribution will be scoring the ball. In a tier of his own at the top there is Jalen Green, who is one of the best run-and-jump athletes in the draft with a pretty impressive bag of scoring moves for a guy his age with his size. His potential as a scorer is alluring for those reasons, so despite his limitations as a passer and defender at the moment, he is easily the best prospect in this mold. Jalen’s lack of ability to read the floor at an advanced level will likely limit him to being more of an off-ball threat, however, as you don’t want to force him into too many decision-making situations. Jaden Springer is far and away the best defender of the group. He’s one of the younger players in the class and posted efficient shooting numbers from every spot on the floor. His combination of scoring efficiency, youth and athletic traits (outlier strength)make him one of the more intriguing value plays in the draft, with a high floor and some legit upside as a secondary scoring and initiating option. Rounding out the worthy first round prospects in this group are Josh Christopher and James Bouknight. Both have plus athletic traits and the ability to create shots at all 3 levels. Christopher has shown some flashes of impressive defense with his strong frame and leaping ability as a secondary rim protector, which could be extremely intriguing depending on how well his defensive awareness develops in the league. Bouknight does not have strong feel as a defender or playmaker and has some issues with his shooting mechanics, but the athleticism and shot-making potential are undeniable.
The first couple of guys in the next tier are arguably the two most impressive shooters in the draft. Bones Hyland from VCU is one of the best prospects I’ve scouted at jumping into his pullups out of advanced dribble combos. He is able to create space for himself to get shots up at any distance, and he shoots an incredibly easy ball. His overall shooting versatility and range will be what allows him to stick in a league that certainly values those abilities. He likely doesn’t add a ton of value in any other way, but he possesses solid defensive instincts and is a talented enough handler to occasionally attack the paint for touch finishes. Max Abmas rightfully took March Madness by storm with his flamethrower shooting from everywhere on the court. Like Bones, he has extremely deep range and the ability to form shots off the dribble. Abmas unfortunately is at a size disadvantage, which is tough because he is not a true primary creator. However, his ability to cut and relocate off the ball mixed with elite shooting could make him a dangerous offensive threat with real gravity, especially when played next to a big initiator. Austin Reaves is one of the most overlooked prospects this year, likely due in part to his lackluster 3PT%., despite having shown in the past that he is a more than capable shooter from distance. Reaves is very creative as a scorer and knows how to get to his spots. He is also elite at drawing fouls, can make legit passing reads on the move, and can play solid on-ball and off-ball defense. Cam Thomas is as polarizing a prospect as you’ll find, even within this typically polarizing archetype. Cam, like Reaves, just knows how to get to his spots and can heat up in a hurry. He is an insanely impressive shot maker who is not bothered by contests and is not afraid to put up shots in any situation. I’m lower on him than many because of his complete lack of ancillary skills, however. Cam has tunnel vision as a passer, isn’t great as a ball handler, and is probably one of the worst defenders in the class. He should be able to stick around in the NBA because he is so talented as a scorer, but I don’t buy him as anything more than a bench spark plug with bad decision-making and feel. The last of the draft-able off-ball scoring guards is Tre Mann, who some actually would argue is a primary initiator prospect. However, Tre struggles to engage defenders and make advanced reads as a playmaker, and he lives on tough shot-making for a big portion of his points. He is a very impressive space creator and shooter, but without the ability to get easy shots for himself and others, it is hard for me to imagine him thriving with the ball in his hands for extended periods. He is best served leveraging his shooting gravity and ability to change direction as an off-ball threat. The rest of the guys in this group are all potentially NBA players, but none of them meet the threshold as draft-able in my opinion. They all either have shortcomings that will hinder them at the next level (Dosunmu’s feel) or just don’t really have any obvious NBA traits (Noel, Primo).
The first team that comes to mind that could really use a player in this archetype is Orlando, as they need scoring firepower at any position. They don’t necessarily have the true primary creator that Green would benefit from, but they do have the right defensive personnel to make his job on that end easier. Their next step would then be to use their other lottery pick on either a potential initiator(Giddey)or someone to add some spacing (Moody), another area the Magic are lacking. Later on in the draft, teams like Memphis and New Orleans could look to add someone of this type. Springer would be a very on-brand pick for Memphis - they seem to value advanced stats and “Draft Twitter” darlings. He would fit the culture as a gritty defender who can find somewhat unorthodox ways to impact the game offensively, and is an intriguing fit next to Ja Morant. Josh Christopher also has ties to the organization through Tayshaun Prince, who is a family friend. Both of these picks would make sense based on what the organization tends to value. Memphis needs a 2-way wing who can take pressure off of Ja with his ability to score the ball. Hyland, Abmas and Mann would all be worthy fliers for one of New Orleans’ second rounders, as they need spacing for Zion and Ingram to operate. Gravity shooters like these guys open up so much space on the floor, and their shot versatility allows for some unique plays that take advantage of both their spacing towards half-court and Zion’s spacing towards the rim. Taking one of these three makes even more sense if the Pelicans want to continue deploying Zion as a primary ball handler, which should be the case, as he was effective in that role. With unique players like Zion, it is imperative to put the personnel around him that maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses, and guys with their level of shooting ability have a chance to do so.
2-Way Off Guards
Keon Johnson (6’5)
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David Johnson (6’5)
Davion Mitchell (6’1)
Malcolm Cazalon (6’6)
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Joel Ayayi (6’5)
Quentin Grimes (6’5)
Deuce McBride (6’2)
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DJ Steward (6’2)
This archetype is composed of guys with guard size who are better-suited playing next to higher usage ball handlers; they don’t have the necessary handle, scoring gravity or playmaking ability to be the primary handler in a lineup. 2-Way Off Guards differ from the last group in that their value lies more in their defensive ability rather than their ability to score, although most of them do project to bring value in some scoring avenues, whether as slashers, shooters or off-ball cutters. Keon Johnson is the best prospect in this mold because of his elite athletic traits and growing ball skills. His development arc has been impressive over the past few years, adding more and more ball handling ability and feel for the game as his skills catch up to his breathtaking athleticism. His high-end outcomes likely push him into the scoring guard category if he continues to make strides with the ball in his hands. David Johnson is one of the more underrated prospects in the class, with elite processing speed on both ends of the floor. His lack of ball security and inability to utilize his athleticism as an on-ball scorer limit him to being a complementary guard, but his spot up shooting and aforementioned processing speed make him a unique off-ball connecting player. Davion Mitchell swings in the opposite direction of David Johnson as far as mainstream perception vs. my perception, but he is still a good prospect as an elite on-ball defender who took huge strides on offense in his last college year. His main draw on offense will be his burst, but if the pullup shooting and passing improvements he made this year are real, he has a chance to be a legit difference-maker in the league. Malcolm Cazalon is a sort of unknown entity at this point, but he has legit size for his position at 6’6 with flashes of dribble, pass and shoot ability. I don’t have much feel for his defense, as he is pretty inconsistent on that end, but he does have the tools and anticipation to be solid there.
Moving into the second round within this group, there is Joel Ayayi, whose biggest impact skill is his off-ball cutting IQ. He is fantastic at taking advantage of his teammates’ gravity and his opponents’ defensive lapses to find open space around the court as a scorer or as a linking passer. He generally doesn’t make many mistakes on the court and is also a decently versatile scoring threat both on- and off-ball. Defensively he has the length to impact the ball and the awareness to make proper rotations as a team defender. Quentin Grimes has a well-rounded game as a secondary playmaker, off-ball shooter and versatile defender, but also has some glaring holes due to lack of burst and mediocre handle. He likely has a place in the league due to his shooting and ability to make plays on both ends, but it’s hard to see him being a true difference maker unless the 3&D aspects of his game are elite. Deuce McBride is probably the second best on-ball defender of this entire archetype behind Davion, and he has some very unique athletic traits to go along with that, including a +6 wingspan. He really struggles to get into the paint on offense and makes a lot of mistakes as a team defender. Depending on how you value 3&D guards and pull up shooting, Deuce makes sense as an early second rounder, but his deficiencies just outweigh his strengths enough to make him more of a late draft flier to me. The last guy in this group is Duke freshman DJ Steward, who posted really impressive block and steal numbers for his size while probably being a better shooter than his percentages indicate due to his mechanics and flashes of versatility. He has the awareness to excel off-ball with relocations along the perimeter and cuts to the paint, and he has the touch to finish off of both actions. If his defense is actually as good as his playmaking stats show, he may be one of the bigger value players late in the draft or as a UDFA.
The biggest prerequisite for NBA teams when drafting players in this archetype is having a lead initiator already in place, especially if it is a wing/forward initiator. Players in this archetype don’t have the creation ability to thrive with the ball in their hands most of the time. Many players of this type don’t necessarily have much upside due to this deficiency, as they are better off in low-usage roles, either as play finishers or connective pieces within an offense. This is why teams in the lottery will typically not be looking for guys like this unless they already have their creation infrastructure in place. The Warriors are actually the first team that comes to mind that could look to maybe grab Keon, especially since they can afford to take a flier on upside with two lottery picks. It is more likely that they end up using that second lottery pick to trade for a ready contributor, but if they want to look ahead to the future with one of these picks, he would not be a bad choice. Keon’s athleticism and energy would allow him to make small contributions next to the Steph-Klay-Dray core as a floor runner and maybe even a Bruce Brown-esque screen and roller. Later in the draft, teams like the Hawks, Clippers and Bulls could benefit from heady 2-way guards that could make their stars’ jobs easier. David Johnson and Joel Ayayi specifically stand out as good fits for teams that are ready to win now, as they will thrive as off-ball movers and shooters while playing smart team defense and keeping the ball moving within the offense. For the Clippers, both David Johnson and Ayayi would allow them to keep size on the floor without sacrificing skill. For the Hawks, they have seemed to prioritize a fluid offense with multiple ball handlers who exploit perimeter advantages and the rolling gravity of their bigs, which both of them can do. And for the Bulls, they bring much needed positive decision making skill and the ability to play off of both LaVine and Vucevic’s gravity. In the second round, no team with a bigger initiator could go wrong with drafting any of the guys in this archetype, especially if they need more stability in the backcourt. Guards who can score and make good decisions while not taking usage away from stars are vital pieces in the playoffs where skill kills.
The next piece in this series of archetype pieces will feature guys with chances to be lead initiators and will aim to discuss the traits that make each of them worthy initiator bets and what traits could limit them in that role.