Dillon Mitchell & Projection Dependency
Written by Tim Smith
Usually, I don't rush my way into watching film of the upcoming class. Instead, during an average cycle of the NBA draft, I rejoice in the havoc and chaos of draft night and then take some time off scouting to recalibrate and relax.
However…
The 2023 draft class is no average cycle.
Prodigious talent in abundance, gripping player narratives, diverse playing situations, absolutely wacky skill sets, and phenomenal athletes that will have you re-watching the same clip twenty times over before moving on - 2023 has it all.
Setting foot into this minefield of talent, I initially didn't know which direction I wanted to step first. Wembenyama? Scoot? The Thompson Twins? Or maybe the likes of Nick Smith and Kel'el Ware? Amid the choice overload at hand, seeing Dillon Mitchell selected fourth in the ESPN 2023 mock draft - ahead of his highly-acclaimed teammate Dariq Whitehead, piqued my interest and I had to figure out why this was the case for myself.
Dillon Mitchell is currently ranked as the #4 recruit in the 2022 high school class by ESPN and #5 by 247Sports. In June of 2021, Mitchell was nowhere to be seen in ESPN's top-100 recruits. Entering his senior season, Mitchell transferred to high school hoops powerhouse Montverde Academy and subsequently, his ranking sky-rocketed, rising to #27 by August 2021, #18 by year-end, breaking the top ten in April, and finishing the year sandwiched between Arkansas' Nick Smith and UCLA's Amari Bailey. The late-riser is committed to play for the University of Texas and is the highest-ranked Longhorn recruit since Myles Turner, the 11th pick of the 2015 NBA Draft. He joins a selection of notable draft hopefuls playing for Texas in Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunter and #17-ranked ESPN recruit Arterio Morris. While not necessarily in the same conversation, Timmy Allen, Dylan Disu, and Marcus Carr are also worth mentioning as potential, albeit more unlikely, league-bound talents.
Dillon Mitchell skying high at the Powerade Jam Fest
The Break Down
Commonly listed as a wing, more specifically a small forward, Mitchell's skill set suggests that he might project better as a four-man. While undersized at 6'7", Mitchell's standout athletic tools compensate to a degree. He is an explosive leaper who is excellent at leaping off of either foot. For a forward, Mitchell excels as a vertical spacer, quickly getting off the ground from a standstill and being just as threatening as a lob threat in transition and the halfcourt. The majority of his scoring opportunities at Montverde come on drop-offs, where he is well-positioned playing along the baseline and is patient in knowing when to cut in or flash into position to receive the ball without interfering with the ballhandler's lane to the rim. His adept offensive positioning on the interior indicates that he may be better suited at the four than the three offensively. I am concerned that a 6'7" forward primarily scoring off of drop-offs and off-ball athletic advantages (like a 6'10" + bigman would commonly do) isn't an ideal size-to-playstyle pairing, especially when he doesn't currently offer many complimentary, or in this case compensating, attributes as a scorer to make up for his shortcomings.
There are some interesting moments of positionally-positive ball handling for Mitchell, where he shows an ability to get downhill off a strong crossover, but his perimeter handling flashes don’t happen consistently enough to comfortably project him using his handle as an effective creation tool based on the evidence at hand. At the high school level, he's been successful attacking closeouts off the catch with burst but is somewhat predetermined and predictable off the catch as he is a near non-threat to shoot. When he can get to the rim off a perimeter drive, he struggles physically if met at the rim. Mitchell's weight isn't a concern for me at all - high schoolers and even college players should get a pass in this regard to an extent, as their bodies are still developing. My worries with Mitchell are more grounded in how he habitually reacts to contact, not his conversion through it. He tends to flail with the ball when challenged on the interior, not showing much intent to finish through or around the contact and rather take the awarded free throws when he can. Moreover, he doesn't go through the action of attempting the layup when challenged, routinely settling for being thrown off course. When going through the motion of finishing on a perimeter drive, Mitchell's touch at the rim is passable, but he is better suited to play in a bigman-style catch-and-finish role rather than attacking from the perimeter like a player of his build usually would.
Over several Montverde games I watched, Mitchell made a total of two jump shots, both being fadeaways from within 12 feet at the very most. Mechanically, I don't see any glaring issues in the few attempts I've seen, but his hesitance and severe lack of volume keep me wary. Very few players of his height and position succeed in the league without a jump shot, and it's incredibly hard to see Mitchell warranting such a high selection given his current, projectable skill set without at least a marginally stronger hint of shooting. There's a chance he has something in his bag he simply didn't show during high school because, as I said, his jump shot doesn't look entirely ineffective by any means.
I think a lot of the optimism for the development of Mitchell's offensive game actualising is catalysed by his playmaking chops. Mitchell is an unexpectedly polished distributor for a 6'7" rim-running vertical spacer. Right now, he most frequently makes decisions from a standstill in the high post, executing quick and decisive reads to shooters and baseline options. His lack of spacing from even 12-15 feet out could diminish his value doing this at higher levels, especially considering his lack of size for a four-man. His quick processing translates into his live-dribble passing, which, combined with his athletic movement skills, sparks long-term intrigue. The most established aspect of Mitchell's passing is his excellent touch and timing moving the ball in Montverde's high-low offense. I'd love to see Texas utilise Mitchell like this beside other frontcourt players like Christian Bishop. Speaking of his accuracy and touch, Mitchell loves throwing precise outlet passes and incentivises his guards to run the floor once a defensive stop occurs.
The extent to how great of a defender Mitchell is isn't so obvious. This is primarily due to Montverde's sheer size and athletic advantages over most other high school teams. However, all signs point toward him being a positive defender as he moves up the ranks. On the ball, Mitchell is able to contain perimeter drives by smaller ball handlers through walling-off drivers with his lateral strides and being able to flip his hips. Mitchell also displays quick hands and a knack for getting out in transition, being a good bet to deliver his fair share of defense-to-offense moments. These athletic capabilities on the defensive end combined with his plus-processing could indicate upside as a switchable plug-and-play defender at higher levels. Additionally, his vertical explosiveness translates into some success as a secondary rim protector, pulling off some wicked volleyball swats around the rim and displaying impressive recovery skills in the half-court and transition.
Discussion
As of right now, Mitchell is where I divert the furthest from the consensus regarding any of the top rated 2023 prospects. Narrative-wise, his late rise into the top-five reminds me of the pre-season upsurge of excitement surrounding Keon Johnson heading into his freshman season, which was built upon the idea of Johnson’s upper-tier athletic profile being complimented by projected guard skill development.
Johnson was slotted at #4 on the B/R mock & #7 on the ESPN mock in November
The idealistic NBA versions of Mitchell and Johnson are relatively dissimilar to one another, but just like the pre-season perception of Johnson, Mitchell is a highly ranked prospect that is notably more projection-dependent than others in his draft range. This isn’t to say that Mitchell is incapable of eventually warranting such a high selection or even that Johnson was an outright collegiate disappointment, as I still had him ranked #15 on my 2021 big board. Rather, I’m acknowledging that Mitchell would need to hit on several key developmental thresholds to fulfil the expectations his current consensus ranking suggests.
Projection Dependency
Of course, projecting future development is THE vital component to the assessment of any prospect. But with the high stakes of making an annual multi-million dollar investment, at what point in the draft does the risk of low-outcomes outweigh the roll of the dice on more projection-dependent prospects? Delivering an answer to where the line should be drawn is not something I intend to do, but I think it is worthwhile to tackle projection dependency when discussing Dillon Mitchell and his current draft stock.
Having the facilities to take on a project differs between teams, and aspects such as coaching competency/trust, opportunities for in-game reps, and team timelines bear a significant impact on the decision to draft a rawer player. In a vacuum, selecting in the NBA Draft (and more so the process of constructing big boards) are a game of evaluating risk versus reward. A combination of perceivable upside, likelihood of achieving so, and immediate translatability are considered when formulating opinions comparing prospects. When these three corners reach varying and opposing extremes, ranking such a prospect alongside a generally balanced one becomes a more complicated matter.
An excellent example of this are our consensus 21st ranked and 22nd ranked 2022 prospects, John Butler and Jalen Williams. While these two had extremely different draft night experiences, with Williams going top-twelve and Butler unselected, in some draft Twitter corners, and especially in The Looney Bin community, rankings of the two weren’t as disparate. Being the classic high ceiling low floor prospect, Butler represents extremes. Butler glows with developmental intrigue while exhibiting translatability concerns without receiving adequate development. On the other hand, Williams’ floor is far less ambiguous than Butler’s, but the ridiculous high-end outcomes for John outmatch the less enthralling high-end outcomes for Jalen, at least in a pre-draft sense. The immense variance in outcomes for Butler generates a level of risk that reduces and undermines the appeal of hitting high-end outcomes, placing him in a similar betting range to the much safer and much more established Jalen Williams.
Butler is a more extreme case than Mitchell, but I feel that Mitchell is closer to that end of the translatability spectrum than is currently being acknowledged, based on his mainstream media ranking. While showing indications of room for skill development, the reality is that Dillon Mitchell presently exists as a raw offensive talent with a funky frame-to-skillset pairing. In a class where he is being ranked in early mock drafts among the likes of Dariq Whitehead, Ausar and Amen Thompson, Nick Smith, and Cam Whitmore, Mitchell is notably the odd man out. My hesitance to rank Mitchell in the same company as this crowd is due to the number of if-statements that pile up rather frequently when projecting his offense. Mitchell currently translates as an awkward fit to the NBA without achieving expected (and highly necessary) offensive skill development. We can see indicators that point towards Mitchell potentially developing into a toolsy, multi-faceted contributor down the line, but the fruition of this idealised version of him is far too dependent on projection rather than tangible basketball skills that presently exist. I think it is worthwhile to be cautious, ask what Mitchell looks like if he doesn’t hit on several developmental steps, and consider how reliant on projection we’re being with such prospects.
