Kali’s Korner: Keegan Murray

Written by Nick Kalinowski

At the beginning of this cycle, I wrote a piece where I listed my top ten best returning prospects for the 2022 NBA Draft. While several of those players, including Jaden Ivey and Bennedict Mathurin, have developed into bonafide lottery prospects, one name that didn’t crack the honorable mentions section was Keegan Murray, the sturdy power forward from Iowa. After averaging only seven points per game in 2020-21, Murray led the Big 10 in scoring average at 23.5 PPG, while also finishing in the top 5 in rebounds, blocks, TS%, and 3P%, en route to being named a consensus top ten prospect in this year’s class. Murray’s magnificent season concluded with him being named a consensus All-American and a first team All-Conference player, and he led Iowa on a run through the Big 10 Tournament that concluded in a conference title for the fifth seeded Hawkeyes. He possesses a diverse, multifaceted game that relies more on skill than flash and displayed the ability to score at all three levels without sacrificing efficiency or defensive effort.

Strengths:

When he puts his head down and drives with his dominant right hand, Murray is difficult to keep away from the basket. He does an excellent job of lowering his center of gravity to power through defenders, who become forced to foul to prevent an easy basket. His sturdy frame is well-suited for the grind of an 82 game season and his motor seems to never quit. Instead of recklessly charging at the basket, Murray is often methodical in his approach, often bullying defenders through several feet of space before going up with a high-percentage shot near the basket. He is a respectable free throw shooter for a player at his position (75% career from the stripe), so these opportunities are often converted into two points from the line.

Murray’s go-to move in the low-post is a spin into a right-handed hook shot from the left block, and he has mastered this combination to the point where it is essentially an automatic basket. Although he does operate from both sides of the paint, he prefers the left side as it allows him to occasionally get the defender to jump with an inside fake before he twists back outside for the hook. His work on the low block should enable him to surpass the traditional “stretch four” role that has become popularized in the modern NBA and will allow him to gain a bigger role as a result.

From outside the arc, Murray has legitimate NBA range and can score both in the catch-and-shoot situations and off the dribble. Iowa often chose to run a plethora of pick-and-fades for Murray, which provided him with opportunities to shoot the ball from all over the floor. His jump shot form consists of a slower release with a wide base that should translate seamlessly to the professional level. Speeding up his jumper may be necessary if he wants to make more tightly contested jumpers, but leaving him with any sort of space is a defensive mistake.

Here’s Keegan drilling an off-the-dribble stepback three over 7-foot-4 Purdue big man Zach Edey. He put on an absolute show during the entire Big 10 Tournament, and showed off his complete skill set in the process.

Murray finds himself among the best at his position for almost all aspects of defense, as he excels at positioning, movement, body control, and timing. Likewise, he can match up against any position on the floor at an above-average level, even switching onto point guards such as in this clutch stop against Penn State. While his offense may be what keeps him on the floor for most of his minutes, his defensive prowess will only provide added value to whatever team selects him in this year’s draft.

Finally, Murray fights hard to secure offensive rebounds and his excellent positioning and timing on the glass leads to easy putbacks and second-chance opportunities for him and his teammates. In the same game against Penn State, Murray blew past his defender, cut hard towards the basket, and timed his jump perfectly to score the game-tying tip-in that forced overtime and eventually led to an Iowa victory. Also of note in this play is how he contorted his body 180 degrees in mid-air and still managed to out-maneuver his defender for the ideal position for the putback.

Weaknesses:

Part of the reason why Murray’s post arsenal consists of so many left-hand-fake-to-right-hand-hook combos is because he looks uncomfortable finishing drives with his non-dominant hand. Contact at the rim seems to affect him at a far greater rate on this side of the basket, which is why layup attempts directly off of left-handed drives are a very rare occurrence. Likewise, Murray does not replicate the same fake-into-hook combo from the other side of the floor, indicating that his touch on hooks and floaters may also be significantly weaker from his left hand.

Repeating the same post combination also provides smart defensive guards with an opportunity to strip Murray of the ball as he tries to shift it back into his right hand. At the professional level, where scouting reports are significantly more nuanced and every detail of a player’s game is harshly scrutinized, Murray will need to utilize other moves down low to score points and keep defenses off guard.

Murray’s reliance on his right hand also extends into the open floor, where he seems reluctant to push the pace with his left, also allowing for easy steal opportunities for quicker guards. In this play against Wisconsin, Murray dribbles directly into the arms of the Badger guard, who easily picks his pocket and converts a layup on the other end.

The slow release time on his jumper will occasionally enable defenders to recover from shot fakes in time to provide a tougher contest. More athletic forwards, such as the Penn State defender marking Murray in the above possession, will be able to easily chase him down and potentially alter his jumpers (the play here did result in a foul, however). He does not get much elevation on his shot, so quickening the release will be integral in his development as a shooter.

You might also be wondering why there are no clips of Murray in the pick and roll in this article, and that’s because, quite simply, Iowa almost never ran them with him. Nearly every time Murray was asked to set a screen he faded behind the arc instead of rolling to the basket, and the Hawkeyes also did not utilize him as a pick and roll ball handler much either. In the NBA, his role will likely expand to include more short roll reads that were not included much in the Iowa offense, lest he become restricted to more perimeter-oriented play.

NBA Outlook:

All that being said, Keegan Murray has established himself as one of the ten best prospects in this upcoming draft class. Although his highlight reel may not consist of flashy dunks or behind-the-back passes, he possesses a style of play that is well-suited to the role of the modern NBA power forward and should contribute immediately to the organization that calls his name on draft night. While several adjustments to his game are needed to realize his full potential, many of them are easily coachable and his solid foundation should make him one of the more positively impactful players in this class from the get-go.

For his role, he would be best served to land on a team that runs an extremely perimeter-oriented system with a penchant for small-ball, as his rebounding and screen-setting would be valuable at the 5 (he would have been a perfect fit for the Daryl Morey Rockets in this capacity). Among the teams in his projected draft range, I would love to see him as a member of the Portland Trail Blazers, who have a gaping hole at the four position and currently have no bigs on the roster who can stretch the floor. Although other teams, like Indiana or Charlotte, will be definitely interested in Murray’s services, I believe Portland’s system will be the best environment for Murray to grow and develop in a primary role alongside a superstar guard in Damian Lillard.