The Jaden Springer Conundrum

Written by Carter Young and Nuno Sousa

Draft scouting and prospect evaluation will always have philosophical differences. Scout X will prefer defense. Scout Y wants to swing for the fences, while Scout Z wants someone whose odds of busting aren't above 5%.

In this piece, we will cover a prospect whom we both like. But as two people whose draft philosophies have a lot of “swing for the upside” built in them, we diverge on what a realistic version of Jaden Springer looks like, and what’s the value in that as an NBA player/archetype.

Welcome to Jaden Springer, a 6’4 freshman guard from Tennessee. Before getting to the film and discussion, what shows up skimming through his college stats (and backed by previous years’ data) is the shooting, the defensive proxies and the finishing. Jaden Springer is a + athlete with ++strength; his ability to leverage those two attributes probably decides his future NBA role.

Carter - Jaden’s recovery ability, strength, and lateral quickness give him the tools to enter the league as a + point-of-attack defender across both guard positions, with the likelihood of expanding his versatility to guard smaller wings in time due to his outlier strength at 6’4. Guys at similar sizes who can absorb contact from bigger players with their strong frames, such as  Marcus Smart and Jrue Holiday,  impact the defensive end more than other guards, and Springer has both the strength and the willingness to do the same.  This ability to guard up a position or two will allow him to win individual possessions when needed while also increasing the overall versatility of a lineup’s defense.

Although on-ball defense has become less significant due to the offensive talent in the league, Springer can also offer contributions as a team defender.  Players must be able to combine their physical tools with the feel and awareness to fill their roles within a scheme while also trying to use their unique traits to return positive value, whether through creating turnovers, altering shots at the rim, or simply clogging up space without making mistakes.  Springer showed the ability in his freshman year to make anticipatory rotations and to be in the correct position off-ball, despite having some lapses that you would expect in any 18 year old.  His physical tools also bolster his ability to create plays on defense as seen by his excellent block and steal percentages.  Team defense could be a swing skill for Springer, as it could be the difference between him being a plus 2-position on-ball stopper or a truly elite/sub-elite guard defender with legitimate positional and schematic versatility.  I am willing to buy into him becoming a very impactful team defender due to his combination of mental and physical traits present already at such a young age.  He has an elite physical trait (strength) with no obvious deficiencies in any other athletic factors, while also showing understanding of his role and responsibility off-ball.

Nuno - On defense, Springer certainly made life hell on a lot of ball handlers, with a tremendous ability to recover when opposing players created any kind of downhill advantage. As we see in the clip below, Springer forces BJ Boston left, BJ takes it and runs with it, but Springer is there on the pullup with a great closeout.

But while I agree with most of what you said, let me play devil's advocate. Springer’s overwhelming strength advantage and correspondingly great contact absorption against the average college guard result in an elite recovery ability. However, relying on said recovery ability means that the player lets his matchup go by him in the first place (call it the Matisse Thybulle). I fear that in the NBA, with a higher base threshold for athleticism, his physical strength won't be enough to have the same type of “event creation” on defense that he’s shown in the youth levels. Nonetheless, the versatility, ++strength and +lateral speed make it very hard to see Springer not become a plus defender at the guard position.

Carter - The two main skills that allow role players to get consistent playing time are shooting and defense.  While stars mostly run the show as scorers and playmakers, guys who can add value as defenders and effectively space the floor on offense are extremely valuable to fit around them, taking advantage of their on-ball gravity while minimizing their responsibilities on defense.  Along with his defensive ability, Jaden’s baseline level of shooting ability will allow him to fit in on an NBA court as soon as he steps into the league. His 81% FT shooting and 43.5% 3PT shooting (albeit on low volume) indicate that he already has the ability to make shots with efficiency, and the film also shows indication of plus touch on shots in and around the paint. Jaden is far from the elite tier of shooters in the class, as he just does not have the 3PT attempt rate or sheer shot versatility to mention him with the Max Abmas and Bone Hyland group of flamethrowers. However, I find it hard to not buy into him as at least a consistent spotup threat, with upside to grow into more than that as he gets more comfortable as a ballhandler and space creator off the dribble. Now let’s take a look at the mechanics.

Content made on Kapwing

First, let me preface this by saying I’m nowhere near an expert on shot mechanics. My philosophy is usually “if it works it works”. The upwards moving portion of the shot is beautiful, with good hand placement, elbow angles, a good set point and a fluid release. My only issue is that his upper body and lower body seem to be out of sync, meaning that he begins the upward motion of the upper body while his knees are still moving downwards. This seems like a rather easy fix with NBA shooting development, and more efficient energy transfer should improve Jaden’s consistency and range as a shooter. Nuno, how do you feel about projecting Springer’s upside as a shooter?

Nuno - So, with the caveat of “I’m no shooting coach or doctor,” I too believe Springer will hover around 38 or 39% from three in the NBA. Where the Springer top 10 or above thought starts crumbling for me is, “what kind of shots will Springer take and force the defense to play in the NBA”. Basically, while I buy Springer’s shot, I only buy it on a set shot, benefiting from a previous defensive breakdown or a simple catch and shoot, either above the break or from the corner. On the other hand, I don’t think Springer will have the pullup 3 ability that we see from someone like Suggs or Cade. He lacks the consistent footwork patterns necessary to employ pullup 3s, with alternation between left foot-right foot-shot and right foot-left foot-shot; nor is his handle good enough for that type of shot.
This leads me to the last part of the piece and what I think is our major disagreement on Springer. What is the pathway for Springer to become a high level creator in the NBA for himself and others, and how viable is this pathway?

Jaden Springer had an impressive FG% near the rim this year, and some drives did look great. But my concerns for his slashing potential have grown for two reasons. While his great spatial awareness and solid driving handle get him into the paint reliably, his super high tendency to be a two-foot leaper will make his life very difficult against NBA-level athletes. The two-foot leap gives opposing guards an extra half-second to recover and severely harms his ability to attack shot blockers from side angles and getting right to the restricted area. Springer needs the development of a one-foot leaping ability or of a floater game that he currently lacks to compensate for his two-feet leaping. But history has shown that developing one-foot leaping ability is rare in the transition from college to the NBA; Donovan Mitchell is the lone recent exception in this regard. The second issue is that his outlier strength made his slashing much easier and covered up his driving imperfections in college, but he will not be that same level of mismatch in the NBA, especially against most NBA 2-guards or wings (if you’re in the camp of seeing Jaden as a wing).

Following that, I think Springer’s passing ended up as a bit overrated. Springer’s only truly above average or good subset of passing skills is him going downhill and dumping off the ball if he manages to get the rim protector’s attention. In those situations, he has very good timing on passes to the rim threats. Those also show up out of necessity due to the previously stated tendency towards two-feet leaping. This two-feet leaping results in Springer getting stuck more often than desired, both stuck jumping with nothing decided or simply stuck on the extended free throw line area or non-restricted-area paint) more often than desired, leaving Springer in desperate need of improvisation.

He’s an average drive-and-kick passer, with errant passes and missed opportunities. It’s not bad enough to call it tunnel vision but enough to recognize it as a deficiency in his game when thinking about his primary upside. I also think that Springer misses a lot of the “primary” required reads above the break and above the ball screens (skip passes, defense manipulation with the eyes) while still being able to hit simpler and more open reads of broken defenses, mis-helps, and open rolls. This poses a problem when compiled with my previously stated fears of how little rim gravity he may actually generate; he might end up  stuck at the free throw line extended or even above the 3 point line being asked to be a passer or self-creator, which I don't think he can be at a high, high level.

I believe Springer has a defined role in the NBA as a solid starter who will provide + defense and + shooting, but I fear that the lack of elite passing manipulation and self-creation at the at rim or with pullup shooting) will cap his role as a low- to mid-end tertiary option.

Carter - I definitely agree with you that his tendency to leap off of two feet will limit his ability to get easy rim attempts. I hope that this is something he can grow out of with NBA development, as unlocking one-foot leaping ability could allow him to be a very high-level finisher due to the touch and strength he already possesses. However, even if he doesn’t necessarily change his leaping habits, I think Springer, like all prospects, will benefit hugely from NBA spacing and the overall talent levels around him. I don’t see Springer as a guy with much primary scoring equity, but as a weakside guard attacking bent defenses, his near-outlier strength and physicality for his size will allow him to get to his spots in the paint. My favorite Springer stat is his 44.1 free throw rate, which indicates his willingness to initiate contact on drives and just how difficult he was to stop for SEC defenders. As an 18 year old, Springer was already able to shoot spotups at a high clip, get to the FT line at an elite level, and finish efficiently at the rim despite lackluster spacing, a rigid handle and his limitation as an exclusively 2-foot leaper. Allowing him to attack advantages that have already been created will allow him to leverage his strength attacking the rim without exposing his lack of true primary handling ability, and I also love the idea of letting him handle the ball in pick-and-seal situations à la what Boston does to generate Tatum easier rim attempts. This allows Springer to put his spatial awareness and bully-ball style to work while minimizing the downsides of his finishing style and inability to get all the way to the rim. Overall, while I would not project Springer as a high-level self-creator, I think his unique physical traits and ability to score at 4 levels (FTs!) give him legit potential as a secondary or tertiary scoring option, especially next to a bigger initiator. 

My high-end projection for Springer is a secondary scoring guard who can score from all over the floor in a variety of play types.  Allowing him to flow between on-ball and off-ball usage will allow him to get the most out of his versatility, shooting touch and unique physical style.  Defensively, he has the potential to be one of the best on-ball guard defenders in the league because of his strength and footwork, while also providing positional versatility and + off-ball defense.  If Springer hits an outcome closer to his median, he will likely be a bit limited in what he can do on-ball due to a lack of creativity as a handler and passer.  This would relegate him to mostly a play-finishing role as a spot up shooter who can attack the occasional closeout.  Defensively, it is hard to see him being anything less than a + on-ball defender due to the physical traits, but there is a chance that he just doesn’t have the top-tier instincts and awareness needed to be a true difference maker off-ball.  Either way, I believe Springer is a fantastic value play given where he is being mocked currently due to his high floor and unique pathways to two-way upside.

- Written by Carter Young and Nuno Sousa (@carteryoung340 and @Professor Bamboo)