Against The Grain: Players We Love
Written by Garrett Johnson
This draft cycle began as a slow crawl with the college season concluding long before the draft, and it’s now become a whirlwind as the greater NBA community shifts its attention to a draft that’s taking place a little more than a week after the Finals. If you’re just arriving to the draft conversation and missed our first article on players we rank lower than the mainstream consensus, I recommend checking it out here. Otherwise, the article below talks about players that we’ve consistently ranked higher than most mainstream outlets, our reasoning behind the ranking, and what type of role we project for the prospects. Rankings are drawn from our Official 2021 Looney Bin Board which was published one week ago on this site.
Jalen Johnson
Draft projection: Mid-1st TLB Consensus: #7
Unlike many other outlets that have speculated or weighed rumors about his character, we have chosen to evaluate Jalen Johnson purely on his skillset. Jalen Johnson has immediately translatable skills that will serve him well in his early career. Johnson is set up nicely to be a promising pick-and-roll partner for an offensive initiator. He has the ability to roll to the basket with high-level mobility for his size, he can catch lobs and entry passes with the largest hands in the draft, and he can finish through contact with his large frame. He can also take handoffs and attack off the bounce with vision to pass the ball out to shooters on the wings. He often over-committed to driving into the paint at Duke and put himself into situations where passing options were limited, so an area of growth for him will be to play with more patience as his role expands.
Like many prospects in this year’s lottery, there are some unanswered questions about Jalen Johnson’s three-point shot. It’s a big work in progress. He’s not a movement shooter, and his set shot is slow to get off with some stiff, segmented movement to it. If you’re drafting him, you just hope he’s a good enough shooter. Something better than Aaron Gordon’s career 32% three point shooting, for example.
Jalen Johnson offers two-way appeal as a switchable wing defender. He shows the ability to slide defensively with quickness and to wall off the basket. He is perfectly fit to defend the pick-and-roll, and he has a decent understanding of off-ball help defense. This is a great foundation to build from. At times he could get into foul trouble, but hopefully at the next level he will play on a better team defensively that won’t leave him alone to contest shots at the basket.
So basically, my argument behind TLB’s Jalen Johnson ranking is that there is far more to his game than flashes, and when you take rumors and non-basketball speculation off the table, he’s a far more appealing prospect than people give him credit for. He’s a switchable wing defender with pick-and-roll ability and tremendous value running in transition. That’s incredibly valuable for an NBA team, and if he falls to the twenties on draft night, the team that drafts him is getting a steal.
Kessler Edwards
Draft projection: Mid-2nd TLB Consensus: #15
Quality wing defenders are a premium in the NBA, and despite years of evidence that Kessler Edwards has been one of the best wing defenders in college basketball, he remains buried in the second round on most draft boards. Kessler had the best defensive performances of any player at the NBA Draft Combine scrimmages, turning his assignments into non-factors offensively while picking up big steals and blocks. He’s an excellent defender on-ball, and he should be able to lock down NBA athletes with fantastic footwork, ball-tracking and hand placement. His help defense is some of the best in the class, always knowing the best rotation to make. His projection as a wing defender at the next level is very apparent from the tape.
Kessler’s offensive output raises a few questions, but none that deter TLB from our mid-1st grade. The obvious note is that his shot looks bizarre. His shot has a push motion to it, and his leg kicks out weirdly during his release. But his shot goes in at the college level, and there’s a lot of volume to back it up as viable. I think any team that’s interested in Edwards is going to want to tinker with it, but with a firm 2nd round grade from most draft prognosticators, he’ll almost certainly work on it in the G League for stretches, and that’s just fine.
Edwards has good post touch, and he takes baskets that the defense gives him. He’s not a major threat off the bounce, but again, with a role as a defensive stopper, he just needs to take baskets that the defense gives him in order to be a plus for his team. That concept is a theme throughout our board – Usman Garuba is in TLB’s late lottery, and Herb Jones places just outside our first round. We expect Kessler to be in the league for years to come, and if he falls to the 2nd, teams should try to get him on a guaranteed contract.
JT Thor
Draft projection: Late 1st/Early 2nd TLB Consensus: #18
Outstanding athleticism and rapid skill development over the past year have had members of The Looney Bin bullish on JT Thor for months. Fans of Isaiah Jackson may want to pay attention to Thor’s body of work. Standing at 6’9” with a 7’3” wingspan, Thor has similar athleticism to draft darling Isaiah Jackson with a more advanced game on both ends of the floor. Thor has a smooth jumper that is much further along than Jackson’s, and his shot selection noticeably improved as the year progressed. His handle is functional and gives hope that he can be a slasher from the wing when he has positional advantage. His defensive rotations are a clear positive, and he doesn’t hunt blocks like Jackson. To put it bluntly, there really isn’t a good argument for why Jackson should be the first drafted between the two.
Thor is an instinctual rim protector with some of the best hands in the draft, but his skinny frame probably limits him to the wing as a four who can defend up the lineup. His switchability and defensive feel will be what earns him minutes early in his career. The next step in his development is to get stronger and continue to work on his shot and decision-making. Like Ziaire Williams, the shot looks good visually, but consistent touch isn’t there just yet. He’s best going to a non-playoff team or starting in the G League while he develops an NBA body and rounds out his game.
David Johnson
Draft projection: Mid/Late 2nd TLB Consensus: #22
David Johnson took his game a step forward in the 20-21 college season, but it was derailed by the terrible problems Johnson and Louisville had with COVID-19. Johnson went from a non-shooter to a plus shooter, but after COVID pauses in February, he shot 3-of-15 from three to end the year, bringing his percentage down from 42.6% to 38.6%, and more importantly, lowering his draft stock with a lackluster finish. His field goal percentage took a significant hit from year one to year two, but that was primarily a function of playing on an ISO-heavy team and a much higher volume of outside shooting.
David Johnson showed off impressive defensive ability. A personal favorite game of mine for any prospect this year was Johnson’s game against Duke. He personally asked for the assignment to defend a much-taller Matthew Hurt after watching him torch Louisville’s bigs in the first half. Johnson put on a defensive clinic, completely taking Hurt out of the game both on and off-ball in the second half. He’s a really exciting defensive prospect when you watch his ability to disrupt passing lanes and imagine him switching onto wings at the next level.
The ball security issues from Johnson’s freshman year are still a concern, and it’s understandable why those who consider him a point guard would be lower on him – treating him as a primary facilitator is a misprojection of his role at the next level. Instead, his first-round grade from the Looney Bin is an endorsement of his utility as a backcourt running mate with a more traditional point guard. He has the size for it. standing at 6’5” in shoes with a 6’11” wingspan. Providing great on-ball defense with strong defensive IQ, hitting shots when open, and using his large frame to drive into the paint and score through contact – this is his ideal role early in his career, and he’d be a perfect fit for many playoff teams drafting at the back of the first round.
High-Level Shooters
Sam Hauser TLB Consensus: #25
Matthew Hurt TLB Consensus: #28
Joe Wieskamp TLB Consensus: #31
This draft has an outlier number of elite shooters with truly impressive college numbers, but only a select few have been given proper respect by mainstream outlets. Two of the three players listed here – Hauser and Hurt – have been completely written off for their below-average athleticism while the Duncan Robinsons, Seth Currys and Joe Ingles-types of the NBA are coveted by every team in the league. In Wieskamp’s case, his stock continues to stagnate despite grading as one of the better athletes at this year’s NBA combine, which is even more head-scratching. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense that a player such as Corey Kispert put up similar shooting numbers to these players while consistently being more open on an impressive Gonzaga squad, yet Kispert is the only one garnering popular appeal.
Each of these players has a unique scoring profile compared to one another. Hauser’s shot creation mirrors a lot of today’s premier NBA 3-point shooters – an effective side-dribble pull-up, high release fadeaways, and one of the smoothest shooting strokes you’ll ever see. Hurt is more interested in set shots from the corner, but he makes up for lack of movement with a very high release point and scoring through contests. His post game also improved dramatically with the added muscle he put on from year one to year two, giving him the ability to fight his way to the basket and make tough finishes. It’s tough to get a read on Wieskamp’s preferences when so much of Iowa’s offense was built around creating space for Luka Garza, but he’s shown the ability to get into his shot off movement, create his own opportunities driving to the basket with confidence, and pull-up in transition.
While Wieskamp projects as at least an average defender in the NBA, much has been made of Hauser and Hurt’s defensive deficiencies. But even if you firmly believe that they project to be defensive liabilities, it’s important to remember just how valuable elite three-point shooting is in the league. The value added by players like Duncan Robinson is tremendous, even in the absence of good defense. Robinson was 29th in RPM in 20-21 and top 100 in RAPTOR while shooting 40.8% from three; in 19-20, 44.6% shooting elevated him to 12th in RPM and 20th in RAPTOR. Could any of these three players shoot over 40% from three on high volume at the next level? We think so, and getting that kind of value with a late second round pick is highway robbery. TLB grades Hauser, Hurt and Wieskamp as late-first or early-second round picks.
Vrenz Bleijenbergh
Draft projection: Mid-2nd? TLB Consensus: #36
Vrenz Bleijenbergh’s stock is all over the place. It’s going to be really interesting to see where he ends up getting drafted this Thursday. I personally have him lower on my board than TLB consensus, so I’ll be leaning heavily on ideas presented by others at The Looney Bin to build this argument. First, everyone can agree that Vrenz has uncanny mobility for a player of his size, and he combines that mobility with great vision, ball-handling, and passing touch that allows him to run some point at 6’11” in shoes. His shot is… bizarre, with his form changing a bit from shot to shot, especially in the lower body. But the shot goes in at a decent clip, and he isn’t afraid to shoot off of movement. If coaches and trainers can build more consistency into his form, he could improve quite a bit from his 33% shooting across play in Belgium and Eurocup this past season. Theoretically, a mobile 6’11” player with a reported 7’1” wingspan should be able to defend, and when his motor is running high, Vrenz can do it. But with Vrenz’s mobility comes a very slender frame, and he’ll be targeted quite a bit defensively if he’s brought over early in his career. Some time in the G League might be the best thing for him as a rookie.
The most important thing to keep in mind with our TLB ranking is that there are building blocks here to put together a really interesting player under successful NBA development. Vrenz has the makings of a pick-and-roll nightmare with size, mobility, passing vision and a workable shot. While Vrenz could certainly be stashed, I personally would bring him over sooner rather than later to build pick and roll chemistry with the roster. Oklahoma City was willing to play Aleksej Pokuševski significant minutes last year through his obvious growing pains, and I think the team that drafts Vrenz needs to have the same patience with him, because the end product could dramatically beat the average value of a 2nd rounder.
For more on Vrenz, check out our deep dive article into his game here.
- Written by Garrett (@halfawaketakes)