The Case for Evan Mobley #1 Overall

Written by Nick F.

The 2021 NBA Draft class is special. Full of elite shooters, strong defenders, and athletes capable of reaching escape velocity on thunderous dunks, the 2021 draft class will reshape the competitive balance of the NBA. Standing on top of all of these prospects is the best domestic prospect of the last decade. And no, I’m not talking about Cade Cunningham. I’m definitely not talking about Jalen Green. I’m talking about Evan Mobley, the Pac-12 DPOY, POY, and the #1 player in the nation by BPM. 

When scouting, there are few trends more harmful to original thinking than typecasting. 

The "score-first guards," the classic "3&D wings", the "raw big man with defensive potential," etc… Typecasting is so dangerous because it’s so easy. Why grind through five Cade Cunningham games when it takes a minute to typecast him as a jumbo playmaker and call it a day? 

Evan Mobley, more than most, has fallen victim to typecasting. The “Raw, Physically Gifted Big Man” grouping has been applied to most elite big man prospects of the last decade. Anthony Davis, Jahlil Okafor, Jaren Jackson Jr, Joel Embiid, and Evan Mobley have all been described as such. Search “Evan Mobley Raw” on Twitter and you’ll get dozens of results from amateur draft scouts typecasting Mobley as just another developmental project.

That could not be further from the truth. 

Offensive Breakdown

Evan Mobley’s defensive potential is obvious. He blocks shots like a madman, moves on the perimeter like a 6’5” wing, and swallows offensive players whole with his 7’5” wingspan. Nevertheless, what separates Mobley, and makes him the best player in the 2021 NBA Draft, is his offensive game. Although he’s not as dominant in the paint as recent top prospects such as Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor, Evan Mobley is the most skilled big man to ever go through the NBA Draft.

Passing

Let’s start with Mobley’s passing. The raw numbers suggest a highly efficient passer regardless of position. Mobley averaged 2.4 assists per game, with an assist percentage of 14.1%. Right away, those numbers put Mobley head and shoulders above every top five big selection of the last decade, with Karl Anthony Towns the closest at 11.5%. That difference sounds low, but the gap between Mobley’s assist% and KAT’s is about the same as the gap between KAT’s assist% and the assist% of the worst passing top five selection, Alex Len. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story. In fact, they tell very little of it. What makes Mobley’s passing so special is the variety of different passes he can make:

Here’s Mobley with a live dribble pass to the weak side corner. This is a read that most guard prospects fail to make, and even fewer execute properly. Mobley is able to use his impressive length to bypass the scrum underneath the bucket, finding the open corner shooter. The 6’9” Jalen Graham (#24) had no chance of reaching that pass without fouling Mobley.

One last thing. This entire sequence was completed with Evan Mobley’s off-hand. He’s extremely ambidextrous and, therefore, unpredictable.

But Mobley’s passing isn’t just about using his length to find perimeter shooters:

Mobley’s vision is impeccable. He's the only one on the court to recognize the advantage created by Isaiah White’s cut, and is simply too quick for the opponent to react, slinging the ball over his shoulder and giving White a high percentage look at the basket.

Mobley has a deep understanding of angles, here throwing another over-the-shoulder pass to his brother Isaiah. Notice how Mobley manipulates his opponents, freezing three defenders by keeping his eyes locked on Drew Peterson (#13) on the perimeter. Nobody expects the pass to Isaiah and he finishes the open layup

Ok, one more, this is too good. Mobley gets the opponent center to bite with the subtlest of jump fakes and then hits Isaiah Mobley in a tiny window for another easy layup.

Mobley’s ability to manipulate defenders is unlike any of the other top center prospects of the last decade, and he has the potential to break Jokic’s monopoly on center passing hubs in the NBA. While he likely isn’t going to average eight assists a night, his passing opens up dangerous scoring opportunities. Double Mobley in the post or on the perimeter and he will find the open man every single time. This leaves defenders stuck between a rock and a hard place. As good as Mobley’s passing is, put Mobley in an isolation situation or let him operate one on one in the post and he will score.

Scoring

Let’s look at the list of top 5 big selections from the past decade: Anthony Davis, Alex Len, Thomas Robinson, Cody Zeller, Joel Embiid, Karl Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Ben Simmons, Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Jaren Jackson Jr, Zion Williamson. Remove everyone who shot under 75% at the rim and you’re left with just Williamson, Okafor, AD, Ayton, and Embiid. An incredibly strong list of NBA Draft prospects. But we’re not done. Remove all the players who were assisted on the majority of their attempts and you’re left with just Zion Williamson. 

And Evan Mobley.

That’s not to say that Evan Mobley is Zion. Zion was to college basketball as a Mack Truck is to a road cyclist. But, it’s a useful exercise to underscore how phenomenally rare Evan Mobley’s combination of rim efficiency and shot creation is. Unlike Zion, Mobley cannot always rely on brute force to get to the rim. At his current stage of physical development, he will get out-muscled by some centers. But, much like a wing, Mobley will use his first step to turn the corner on defenders. He’s got long strides and fast-twitch athleticism, and he uses it well to turn the corner on slower traditional 5s:

And his combination of speed, size, and handle makes him impossible to stop in transition:

Note Mobley’s starting position here. He’s a full ten feet further from the basket than the ASU defender and he’s turned the wrong direction after getting the steal.

He’s not just quick-twitch athleticism. Mobley is stronger than his appearance would indicate.

Remember Mobley’s ability to manipulate defenders? It applies to his scoring as well. That’s a pump fake for the ages.

And finally, Mobley’s ability to create shots for himself from midrange makes him a dangerous scoring threat anywhere inside the arc:

This turnaround jumper is one of Evan Mobley’s go-to moves and he’s automatic with it. Everything about this play is high-end Evan Mobley. The handle, the slight shoulder bump to create separation before rising up for the midrange attempt. The opposing player is 6’8” forward DJ Thorpe and he has absolutely no chance of contesting the shot, Mobley’s release point is two feet above Thorpe’s head. This high release is why Mobley is such a dominant midrange player, shooting nearly 50% from midrange (a full 13% better than consensus #1 pick Cade Cunningham). The potential outcome for Mobley where he’s an elite defender while also being a dominant half-court shot creator is entirely possible. Per Synergy, he led all freshmen in NCAA in points per possession in halfcourt sets, 1.048 points per possession.

And Evan Mobley does all this without giving up “traditional” big man skills, as shown in the two clips below, he’s an excellent lob threat and he’s a good offensive rebounder, getting up quickly in traffic to clean up missed opportunities.

Mobley isn’t perfect on offense. He’s a poor screen setter and his three-point shot needs improvement. But there is good reason to project Mobley as a shooter long-term. His long-distance shooting suffers mainly from a lack of strength, which is the easiest issue to correct in an NBA prospect. He already has the touch, 50% from midrange, and the form on closer shots. All that’s left is to let him grow into his frame.

Defensive Breakdown

As good as Mobley’s offensive game is, his potential on defense is just as high. As the lynchpin of USC’s defense, Mobley was the player responsible for holding USC’s opponents to only 42.1% inside the arc, easily first among Power Five conferences. Mobley’s defensive feel and technique shone through in his one year at USC. Of the players to average 2.1 or fewer fouls called per forty minutes, Evan Mobley was first in block percentage at 8.7%. The second? Cameron Krutwig at 4.4%. But block rate doesn’t come close to describing Mobley’s overall defensive impact. So much of what Mobley does as a defender doesn’t show up on the score sheet

This is the type of play Mobley makes every few possessions. Following a switch, Mobley effortlessly seals off 6’0” Quade Green of Washington from driving to the rim, quickly shifting his feet while remaining on-balance and keeping a hand out to contest any attempt at a shot. Sensing that driving past Mobley is going to be impossible, Green passes out to a perimeter shooter who successfully fakes Mobley’s teammate. Mobley, seeing this, covers a third of the court in one stride, contesting the three with his 7’5” wingspan without fouling and forcing a miss. Mobley’s awareness here is incredible, sniffing the play out before his teammate even realizes he’s bitten on a fake.

As good as Mobley is on the perimeter, his bread and butter is rim protection. 

This block exemplifies what makes Mobley so special. For starters, Mobley makes contact with the ball when it is nearly two feet above the rim, well above the reach of most NBA centers. But, equally impressive to the block is how Mobley got there. He’s able to keep pace with the fast break the entire way down the floor, and effortlessly switch his hips to get into position to block the ball, before loading up quickly and blocking the ball at the last possible moment. Physically, Mobley has it all and he uses every bit of his elite body control, flexibility, and athleticism to save USC two points.

The NBA has made monumental shifts in the last decade. Brute force and post ups have slowly been replaced by speed, shooting, and skill. Yet, too often, teams find themselves having to make a trade-off at the center position. Either play a nontraditional center who brings perimeter skills, or continue playing with a rim protector who can anchor a defense on their own, but slow down fast-paced and widely spaced offenses on the other end of the court. Evan Mobley is perhaps the only solution on the planet to this problem faced by NBA teams. Nowhere else is there an elite rim-protecting center who can space the floor, create shots for himself, and bend defenses out of position with highly intelligent passing. Evan Mobley is not generational; he is one of a kind and fully deserving of the #1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.